Have you heard the articulation, “Post hoc thus propter Macau 888 hoc?” You may be more acquainted with the expression “post hoc misrepresentation.”
Except if you’ve invested some energy concentrating on rationale or Latin, you probably won’t have caught wind of it.
Yet, it’s a peculiarity that connects with betting admirably.
Also as you would have accumulated from the title of this post, it means “after this, along these lines along these lines.”
It implies that when Event A happens first, Event B should be cause by Event A.
What’s more it’s a sensible paradox.
Now and then, it’s valid. In any case, on a more regular basis, it’s false.
An Example of Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc in Real Life
I have a blue Hawaiian shirt that I like to wear to the gambling club. It fits well, and the shadings are great. I have blue eyes, so it makes my eyes pop.
The last twice I went to go betting in the club wearing that shirt, I returned home a victor.
The time before those two visits, the shirt was messy, so I wore a red shirt that I like.
I proposed to take my sweetheart to the club with me this end of the week, and she said she possibly needed to go assuming that I wear my “fortunate blue shirt.”
I said, “What makes you believe it’s fortunate?”
“Indeed, the last twice you wore it to the club, you returned home a victor.”
Occasion A was wearing the blue shirt to the gambling club.
Occasion B was returning home a champ.
Since it happened two times in succession, my better half accepted that Event A caused Event B, however listen to this:
The games at the gambling club decide their results arbitrarily. The shade of my shirt has no impact on the RNG (irregular number generator) that decides the consequences of my next gaming machine pull.
At the end of the day, the blue shirt and the successes are altogether incidental.
One more Example of This Fallacy Taken From Real Life
I have a place with a care group for individuals with a substance misuse issue. I met a lady in this gathering with a serious immune system issue. She has a few jerks, talks slow, and frequently experiences difficulty thinking plainly. Her discourse is likewise regularly slurred because of her problem.
A companion of mine dated her and has known her for a very long time. For disclosed to me that she wasn’t like that before the specialists set her on the antipsychotic drugs and the antidepressants.
Gambling club Games
This is a legitimate misrepresentation. The meds she’s on MIGHT be causing different indications, however they could not. Individuals foster these sorts of medical conditions over the long haul. Since they created in her subsequent to beginning another drug routine doesn’t imply that her prescription routine essentially caused these new side effects.
They could have. It could even merit examining this with the specialists.
Yet, the automatic response to expect that A caused B could have genuine wellbeing results. This is the place where a principal comprehension of rationale becomes significant.
Here is Another Way of Looking at It
In long stretches of time past, individuals related the appearance of a comet in the skies with terrible occasions. Something awful appeared to be all the time to happen following Halley’s Comet came moving through the sky.
The most well-known comet-initiated debacle was the demise of a still in ruler power. Obviously, contingent upon the ruler, this probably won’t be viewed as a very remarkable calamity.
This is the reason in Julius Caesar, Calpurnia says:
At the point when vs bite the dust, there are no comets seen; The actual sky blast forward the demise of sovereigns.
In the year 837, when Halley’s Comet came around, Ludwig the Pious administered over the Frankish Empire. He was 58 years of age, and he’d been administering for quite some time. In the ninth century, Ludwig was far beyond the normal life expectancy for anybody, and he’d managed an uncommonly significant time-frame.
Obviously, Halley’s Comet predicted his passing, at any rate, as per devotees to this sensible paradox.
Despite the fact that he didn’t kick the bucket until four years after the fact, the militaries of the oblivious accused the comet.
Halley’s Comet additionally showed up in 1066, which is a date any history specialist or writing buff recollects as the year William of Normandy attacked England. All things considered, either William or Harold of Wessex would have been crushed. In this way, the Comet couldn’t lose.
How Succumbing to This Fallacy Can Cost You Money
Assume you play Texas Hold’em consistently. The last multiple times you were managed pocket pros, another person called your all-in preflop and won the pot. You conclude that wagering all-in on the lemon is a terrible move since somebody generally beats you, so you begin limping in with that hand.
You’re presently losing cash by not getting more cash into the pot with the most grounded hand in the game. Texas Hold’em is a round of irregular possibility, and assuming you get your cash into the center with AA preflop at a full table, you’ll lose 66% of the time.
In any case, you’ll win 33% of the time, and since there’s such a lot of cash on the table, you’ll benefit.
Contemplate the math. You have nine players and $100 each. You bet everything with aces multiple times in succession, and you lose six of those times, yet you win multiple times.
The multiple times you lose cost you $600.
However, the size of the pot on the three hands where you win is $900, so you’ll win $2,700 on those three hands.
That is a benefit of $2,100 more than nine hands, or $233.33 per hand. Your presumption that raising preflop with pocket experts purposes you to misplay this hand and lose cash.
In any betting game where you should settle on choices in light of the normal worth of those choices, you ought to go with what has the most noteworthy anticipated worth. This incorporates blackjack, where you ought to follow fundamental system, and video poker, where you ought to likewise play your cards as per the proper methodology.
Many individuals who overlook essential procedure in blackjack or appropriate technique in video poker do as such on the grounds that they’ve succumbed to this intelligent paradox.
The Beauty of Random, Independent Events
A few players participate in hypothesis about streaks. They count how frequently the ball lands on a particular tone in succession at the roulette table, for instance. After a particular number of occurrences, they accept that the shading is hot, so they bet with it.
The supposition that will be that the shading is bound to come up in light of the fact that it’s been coming up so frequently up to this point.
Be that as it may, while you’re playing genuine cash roulette, a twist of the wheel is a free occasion. What occurred on the past twist has no impact on the likelihood of the following twist.
The equation for likelihood is sufficiently straightforward, you simply partition the quantity of ways you can accomplish Outcome A by the complete potential results.
On a roulette wheel, 18 of the numbers are red, and the wheel has an aggregate of 38 numbers.
This implies that the likelihood of getting a particular tone (red or dark) is 18/38, or 47.37%.
That doesn’t change due to the times that shading has been hit beforehand.
Keep away from “This Always Happens When I Do That”
Assume you have a companion who plays the lottery, and she discloses to you that she quite often wins when she plays in the Wednesday drawing. Likewise, she always loses in the Friday drawing.
She offers to get you a lottery ticket on Wednesday on the off chance that you’ll repay her for the ticket.
There are such countless reasons you should turn this proposal down. For a certain something, the chances of scoring that sweepstakes even a little win-are horrendous. Commonly, the chances of winning your cash back are lower than 1 out of 12.
In betting and throughout everyday life, you ought to keep away from the post hoc false notion. It’s enticing to accept that there’s dependably a circumstances and logical results connection between occasions, however here’s reality:
A significant part of the time, there’s not.